When to close a storm-surge barrier
A surge peaks in 24 hours and its forecast sharpens every hour. Closing halts shipping and takes at least 6 hours; an open barrier floods the city above 300 cm NAP. Compare backward induction with threshold rules on the same storms.
Loading recorded storms…
Hours before the peak
Forecast of the peak
P(peak above 300 cm)
Barrier
Cost so far (hours of halted shipping)
Recorded storms and policies; nothing is optimized in the browser. The 300 cm criterion is the Maeslant barrier's; forecast errors, delays, costs and storms are teaching values.